Friday, May 15, 2015

Fish again? You bet.

The Marlins are back! Or rather we're back in Florida for the weekend. This series has some great matchups so buckle your safety belts, it's going to be a bumpy ride!

Game 1 - Teheran v. Phelps
Game 2 - Wood v. Latos
Game 3 - Miller v. Koehler

I'll start by saying I hope we see the good Julio in Game one, but if we don't the Braves are going to have some opportunities against David Phelps. David has only recently been promoted to a starting role with the Fish, and he's done an admirable job. In 5 starts he's given up 6 runs across 30 innings. That means as a starter, Phelps has a 1.80 ERA, which is ridiculously good. However, while Phelps has only just started for the Marlins, he's had 3 years of semi-regular starting experience with the Yankees, and his ERA back then was in the low 4.00's. So, he's out over his skis at the moment. Looking at the opponents you can see why. The Phillies, Mets, and Giants all aren't powerhouse offensive squads right now, and are in the bottom third of the league in runs scored. So while Phelps is pitching well currently, he will issue some walks, and he will give up some hits to guys on the team that have seen him before. What we can hope is that Julio keeps the game on point until the Braves can ding Phelps first.

The second game is a battle of two pitchers with terrible luck and bad ERAs. Alex Wood's ERA is now at 4.28 with a WHIP near 1.60, and Mat Latos has an ERA of 4.72 with a WHIP of 1.49. Looking simply at their numbers, this could get ugly really fast. However, Wood hasn't won a game since April 7th, and he's getting steadily worse. Latos on the other hand won a game on May 5th, and he has been steadily improving. The Braves torched Latos if you remember, and handed him his first two losses of the year within about a week of each other. That was then. Now Latos has given up only 5 runs in his last three starts, while Alex has given up 11 in that same time frame in less innings. My hope is that Latos gets gun-shy against a lineup of the Braves that can really rough him up, and Alex can get past the first inning with no damage since he really seems to struggle getting the third out.

The marquee matchup of the series is Shelby Miller against Tom Koehler. Koehler is 1-1 against the Braves this year so far, and he always manages to pitch us tough. The best hitter against Tom is AJ, so I'm really hoping he gets the starting nod with his 2.042 OPS and 2 homers in 8 ABs. The rest of the lineup is basically average, so let AJ put the hurt on him with some people on base. On the flipside Shelby Miller is red hot with a 1.60 ERA and 2 wins against the Marlins already, although he's only technically 1-0 due to a no decision. Given the matchup, I'm thinking Shelby really puts the screws to a Marlins lineup in the rubber game to get the Braves the much needed win.

CPA Predictions:

Last series the CPA went 2-1, missing the final game because the Braves laid an egg. The record is now 12-18 with -9.85 units. We're getting there. Just need to keep winning series. Let's see what we got in this one.

Game 1 - Marlins by 1
Game 2 - Braves by 1
Game 3 - Braves by 2

We need a series win something fierce. Go fry those Fish.


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