Monday, May 4, 2015

Braves and Phillies, this time it's at the Ted

Hey look, the Phillies again. I remember this going very poorly in Philadelphia. I think I blocked out why, but I know Trevor Cahill was involved. And he's not a starter anymore, is he? I didn't think so. On to the matchups!

Game 1 - Wood v. Harang
Game 2 - Miller v. Billingsley
Game 3 - Foltynewicz v. Williams

Ok so Alex Wood got a no-decision in Philly against Aaron Harang the first time around because the Braves refused to score a run. Harang went 8 innings against the Braves giving up 2 hits. I would say given Harang's history that a 2-hit shutout again is unlikely, but he's pitching lights out right now. Especially since he just gave up 5 runs to the Cardinals. He can be beaten, and Alex didn't pitch poorly last time. He just threw too many pitches, which is a problem I've had with Wood all season. The good news, if there is any, is that hitters traditionally do better the second time they see a guy in a season. Hopefully that will apply to the Braves in this matchup.

Miller had his first bad outing of the season on Thursday night, but he'll bounce back well against a bad Phillies lineup that he dominated up in Philadelphia for the Braves only win of the series. Chad Billingsley will be coming off the DL for his first game back in 2015. That's good news for the Braves because pitchers coming off injury with very little training often have rust on the mechanism. Plus Mr. Billingsley sounds like he should be a butler rather than a pitcher. More good news is the fact the Braves crushed Billingsley in the past. I would expect Gomes to get a start in this game since he's 6/11 lifetime off Billingsley with a jack. Keep an eye out for Ryan Howard against Shelby though. He's gone 4/7 off Miller with 3 homers in his career. Almost every time he's hit Miller, Howard has left the building. We can't afford that if the Braves hope to win this game.

Folty takes the mound for his second ever start against Jerome Williams, who got the lucky win against the Braves in their last matchup. The Braves just couldn't muster more than 4 runs, and the bullpen gave the game away late. But know this, Jerome's ERA is over 4.00 for a reason, and Folty really pitched well in his first start against a tough opponent. If I'm really looking at a key for this game, it's a guy like Nick Markakis, who has .900+ OPS against Williams, and is hitting really well so far this season. If he can get on base and get some hits to knock him in, I think Markakis could score the winning run in this game.

CPA Predictions:

OK let me say this. The CPA went 0-4, but the bizarre thing is how. The CPA accurately guessed the series would be split. However, it guessed completely wrong on every game. So, time for some tweeks with the historical data. How does that match play out with a full month under our belt? Let's find out. The CPA is 7-14 and -10.65 units now. I hope you haven't lost your house yet.

Game 1 - Braves by 1
Game 2 - Braves by 2
Game 3 - Braves by 1

The CPA likes a sweep. I'll just hope that's right, because man, that would be awesome. At the very least I know the Braves will be favored in these games, so they should win the series.


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