Tuesday, August 20, 2013

Series Preview: Mets 2 gamer

This will be a short preview because 1 - it's the Mets, and 2 - it's only 2 games. There is only one rule to a 2 game series if you want to be successful (Win the first game). Other than that, I don't really care what happens because 2 game series aren't really baseball. They are just a makeup, even-out, whatever from a 4 gamer or rain delay. On to the matchups!

Game 1 - Beachy (2-0) v. Wheeler (5-2)
Game 2 - Wood (2-2) v. Niese (5-6)

Given that you want to win Game 1 the most of the two game series, so you can end up playing with house money in Game 2, I'm glad we have Beachy going as the starter. Granted, it's against Zach Wheeler in possibly our last look at the kid before they shut him down for the season, so it won't be easy. However, with the way Beachy is pitching (2 straight wins, 4 wins for the Braves in a row) you have to like your chances. Wheeler beat the Braves in July, but that was because the Braves surrendered 7 runs in that game to Wheeler's 4. It's not like we didn't get to the kid, we just couldn't get out of our own way, and that was one of Wood's first starts. Nobody really has any solid stats against Wheeler because he's new, so you have to rely on the Braves finding a way to score a few RISP hits before the bullpen shows up. Beachy hasn't faced the Mets all that much either, so this one could be wide open.

Game 2 is a day game in NY, meaning the stadium will probably be empty of fans, other than the Braves fans on vacation or taking the day off. Alex Wood is pitching and hates facing the Mets. He made a long relief spot against the Mets in June, and got a loss. He had the aforementioned 7-4 loss in July. The Mets lineup hit him for over .350 on average in a limited sample. It's not pretty. It's got all the trimmings of a give-up-lineup game where we roll out the B-team and pitch a guy who we know isn't a good matchup. The thing that might keep us in the game is that Niese stinks against the Braves too, and he's been doing it a lot longer than Wood. He beat Atlanta in June after giving up 3, but also lost big to the Braves in May after surrendering 7 runs in 4 innings. He isn't likely to have a clean sheet in the day game, so if Wood can turn the tide he can get some much needed support.

The CPA didn't do well on the weekend, only grabbing one win. It predicted a series win but got the order wrong. Anyway, here's the look at the Beachy v. Wheeler matchup.

CPA Prediction Game 1: Braves 4 - Mets 3

The CPA thinks that Beachy is going to give up a couple of runs, but that Wheeler will as well. The difference will be in the late game where the Mets bullpen has been 11th in the NL and the Braves is 1st. If this game is within a run late either way? The CPA likes the Braves chances.


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