Friday, May 24, 2013

Series Preview: Mets Part 2

The Mets are still awful. Even better for the Braves, they don't have to face Matt Harvey since he pitched in the last series. Local radio in NY is calling this Mets team a glorified AAA squad that should be swept at home by the Braves. That's probably crazy, because the Braves haven't been that awesome on the road, but it doesn't speak well to the team the Mets have. On to the matchups.

Game 1: Medlen (1-5) v. Hefner (0-5)
Game 2: Minor (5-2) v. Gee (2-5)
Game 3: Teheran (3-1) v. Marcum (0-5)

One look at the Mets starter's records should let you know how things are going for them. Medlen and Hefner have both been plagued by bad starts. Medlen, however, is still holding a 3.02 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. His problem is that he's in the top 5 pitchers in baseball with the lowest run support. Dude's getting nothing. All the runs in Medlen's starts are coming late in the game. In terms of Hefner, the Mets haven't won a single start of his. At all. As in the Mets are 0-9 when he takes the mound. I don't understand how he's still pitching in the majors. Hefner has a home ERA of 3.52, which isn't terrible, but he's rarely going longer than 6 innings. The Mets bullpen? Think about a giant ball of garbage that's snowballing downhill. That's a pretty good comparison to their pen.

Minor is the Braves best starter right now, without question. The Braves are 3-0 in Minor's last 3 starts, with a road ERA near 3.00 and a .237 opposing average. Dillon Gee has struggled on the road, but his home ERA is much better at 2.35 in 4 starts. Gee's won 3 of his last 4 games, but two of them were against the Cubs and Marlins. The Braves are about 10x better than either of those teams. Add in the fact that the Braves hitters have messed Gee up in the past. Heyward and CJ are batting over .500 against Gee in 14 combined ABs. Justin is batting .250 with a bomb. The guy I think should start in this game is Gattis over McCann. For some reason Bmac struggled with Gee at a .214 clip in 14 tries. I think Gattis would be the bigger pop.

Game 3 could be the biggest blowout in favor of the Braves. At least on paper. Marcum is 0-5, but the Mets got lucky with his start in Atlanta when Kimbrel blew the late save, and the Mets won in extras. That's their only win all season with Marcum on the mound. He's been nothing short of awful on the road, and even worse at home. His 7.98 home ERA is one of the worst in the majors. Teheran has only lost one game all season, and the Braves have won the rest either with him getting the decision or late in the game. He's the anti-Marcum, getting stronger as the season goes along. His WHIP, which was ridiculously high beginning of May, has been slowly coming down to a respectable 1.35 level. BJ, Simmons, Schafer, Laird, and Francisco all have .300+ averages off Marcum. I'd like to see some lineup shuffling to get the hot hands in the game on national TV

The CPA (25-14) is ready for some more winning. Are the Braves? Is this another sweep on paper? I think my gut says it's a series win, but not a sweep. What's the CPA think about game 1?

CPA Prediction Game 1: Braves 5 - Mets 2

The Braves are crushing Hefner when they've seen him, and we're also hitting RH pitching well as a team. The Mets have struggled with Medlen, and only Ike Davis has a home run off him in his career. The Braves desperately need to score runs for Kris, because they've let him down time and again in that department. The Mets are ripe for the picking.


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